In its forecasts unveiled this Thursday, July 21, the Ministry of the Economy forecasts a slowdown in activity in 2023, with growth of 1.4%.
In an “uncertain context” due to the war in Ukraine, the government is counting on a slowdown in the economy for 2023 with growth of 1.4%, after 2.5% in 2022.
According to forecasts by the Ministry of the Economy, it should then accelerate to 1.6% in 2024, 1.7% in 2025 and 2026, then 1.8% in 2027.
An unprecedented effort on public spending
In addition to growth, the government plans to drastically reduce state and community spending during the five-year term.
“Over the duration of the five-year term, public spending will increase in volume by 0.6% on average” per year, i.e. the rate “the lowest for 20 years”, underlined to the press the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire. , a trajectory made possible by a drop in volume on average per year of 0.4% in State expenditure over the period and 0.5% in the operating expenditure of local authorities.
For the executive, this is an unprecedented effort for 20 years, after having released the rein on public spending for two years, in particular with the policy of “whatever it costs” to deal with the crisis. of the Covid.
“We reaffirm France’s serious budget. We are starting to reduce the public debt from 2025. We are back below 3% deficit in 2027”, against 5% expected in 2022, explained Bruno Le Maire.
The effort requested from the State and the communities will make it possible to finance the 0.6% increase in social expenditure over the five-year period on average per year, due in particular to the measures of the Ségur de la santé and the plan for the hospital. , he specified.
In addition to this spending effort, the government is also counting on future reforms (pensions, unemployment insurance, vocational training) and on the France 2030 investment plan to stimulate the economy and achieve “full employment”, i.e. 5% unemployment in 2027.
These forecasts are contained in the stability program (pstab) that the State must submit each year to the European Commission.